DARBHANGA: The mind games of the Muslim vote in Bihar is the quest of psephologists. It is also the most hotly debated topic in village get togethers, tea-stall discussions and bazar gossip.
With backwardness posing a serious challenge to the dynamics of caste and religion-based politics, the outcome of poll-2005 is being widely believed to hinge on the Muslim vote, till now Lalu''s firm votebank.
Enmeshed for years in the politics of appeasement and still bereft of benefits, the Muslims have, however, begun looking beyond their self-proclaimed messiah Lalu Prasad.
"Year after year, while the floods leave behind a trail of devastation, the government leaves us with only tall claims," said Mohd Mushtaq of Sobhan village under the Darbhanga assembly constituency. Shamim, who lost his livelihood and shelter in the floods, says Lalu has taken Muslims for a ride in the last decade and a half.
Not far away in Darbhanga town, Muslims narrate their litany of watery woes and the government''s sullen indifference towards their problems. "The RJD has been fooling us with a false sense of security, not addressing our real problems of unemployment, illiteracy, poverty and floods. Now, we will vote the government out because we are no more steeped in medieval dogmas," says Raju, a Muslim youth.
The tremors of disillusionment can be felt in the Muslim-dominated Karimganj area of Darbhanga constituency. Over 10,000 small traders, primarily Muslims, who supply seeds and saplings across north Bihar and Nepal, lost their only source of livelihood in this flood as their saplings were washed away, said Mohd Ansari, secretary of Plant Protection Association. "Has the government done anything to revive the trade, which suffered an estimated loss of Rs 20 crore?" asks Ansari. "Anyone but RJD," he says when asked about his political choice.
Ansari''s disillusionment is not unfounded as Ram Vilas Paswan''s "bungalow" (LJP symbol) seems to cast a shadow on Lalu''s lantern here. A large section of Muslims are toying with the option hitching their vote to Paswan although the RJD has fielded a Muslim candidate, Mumtaz Alam, from the Darbhanga Town seat against LJP''s Satya Narayan Gami.
However, the intelligentsia is keeping its fingers crossed. M Nasim, a retired English professor, cautioning not to jump the gun, says, "Unlike other elections, the voting pattern of Muslims is going to be highly unpredictable this time."
Fed up with the "Congressisation of RJD" in luring minorities, Muslims are now seeing through the veil of votebank politics. The message is loud and clear __ only lip-service won''t do.